Death to the Environment

I was wondering at what point you just give up the fight. A recent article in the Times Magazine http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/20/magazine/its-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it-and-he-feels-fine.html?ref=magazine told the story of Paul Kingsnorth, rabid environmentalist who staged all kinds of public disobedience demonstrations against polluters and despoilers over a period of several decades and his present change of heart. He has come to the realization that climate change is coming, will get worse, and mankind is not going to respond adequately to the challenge, and so the the battle is lost. Now his focus is figuring out how he and his descendants will survive in the new world of crazy weather and the cultural repercussions.

I found the article pretty disquieting. I'm as frustrated as the next guy about ignorant and selfish officials who deny climate change because their livelihoods depend on that denial. Plus they realize that they will not personally suffer the consequences of their non-actions since they'll be dead when the chickens come home to roost. But my impulse has always been that we need to change the composition of Congress and drive a hard bargain with other polluting nations to stem a threat that is all too real. 

The thought of giving up the fight has never entered my head. But you know, it's probably realistic. We are not a species prone to planning ahead. We confront a situation once it becomes a crisis. Climate change has become a subtle crisis--rising temperatures in some areas, more violent storms, isolated droughts and so forth. Makes me want to summon the overused image of the frog slowly being boiled to death over a low flame. Unfortunately, once the true scope of the disaster of climate change is manifest, it will be too late to act. Then we may all find ourselves jumping on Mr. Kingsnorth's bandwagon. 

Maybe giving up and figuring out how to adapt is the only sensible course. 

Is It Time to Dump All Your Stocks?

About two weeks ago the S&P 500 reached record highs and naturally the usual doomsayers said it was high time for the next rout. And sure enough, the market took a sickening plunge last week and gave up pretty much all its gains for the year. So what should you do?

If you're a small investor, chances are you're going to have a hard time resisting the urge to get out before you "lose all my money." And many people will do exactly that. Which is why over the last 70 years or so, the stock market has averaged a 10% annual gain, while investors were lucky to average 3%. That's because they were trying to time the market and ended up selling at when prices were at their lowest and not getting back in time to fully benefit from the next bull market.

Do not try to time the market.

Look, I feel the same way you do when the market goes through a periodic plunge. I stay awake at night, get that sick feeling in my stomach, snap at family members and moan that I'll never retire. But one thing I never do. I never sell when the market's down. I know enough about investing to never lock in your losses if you don't have to.

I didn't sell in 2007 and 2008 when the S&P lost half its value--and now 6 years later not only did my investments recovered, I'm ahead of the game and have nearly enough to retire. I'm not a genius investor, but I do understand long-term market trends, the importance of asset allocation, and to build a strategy based on your goals and time horizon, not on market behavior. And it's worked for me over the past 25 years.

In other words:  DON'T SELL NOW!!!! This is a routine correction--there's nothing happening in the economy that indicates that we're on the brink of a major recession or depression. Turn off CNBC and watch reruns of Big Bang Theory, read a book about boat building...or something.

Big Sur

This is another post about running because my upcoming marathon is blocking everything else out of my mind. The Big Sur Marathon is coming up in a little less than four weeks and it will be my 10th marathon. Runner's World calls it the Number 1 destination race in the world, mainly because the route runs North on the Pacific Coast Highway from Big Sur to Carmel. I've read that it's among the most picturesque and stunning stretches of highway in the country and it closes to runners on this one day of the year. In fact, the race was sold out in 59 minutes this year! I was lucky to get in.

It's been on my bucket list of marathons for about 5 years and this is the year. I've only been to California once before, and only briefly, and not to that part of the state, but I've been told that the course is exceptionally hilly and some years involves dealing with some mighty winds. This is normally not a problem for me, but I'm coming back from knee surgery 8 months ago and my other "good" knee has been very creaky, which has put a damper somewhat on my training. Essentially, I'm a bundle of nerves, even though I am a veteran marathoner. I've never gone into a race with so many physical questions and have never been on such a challenging course, three Boston Marathons and one Steamtown Marathon notwithstanding. 

But pre-race jitters in the final month of training is normal for many runners. Partly because training for a marathon takes about four months, so after the first three, you're body is rounding into great shape and your energy levels are peaking. Most people, like myself, blow off some of that excess energy through excessive worry, fidgeting, paranoia, pacing and imagining strange aches and pains that spark additional loops of worry, angst, and short-temper-dom. There will be more on this as the date approaches. 

Again, I welcome comments--there must be one or two runners out there who have accidentally happened upon these posts.