40th Wedding Anniversary--No Big Deal

Yesterday was my wife's and my 40th wedding anniversary, and as the title of this post indicates, it was no big deal. It was a big round number, sure, and many people are amazed that a relationship--any relationship-- can last so long.

But for Micky and me, we've never really celebrated our wedding anniversary. Sure, we tend go out to dinner because we use our anniversary as an excuse to splurge on a fantastic dinner at our favorite restaurant--but we'll go to Restaurant Nicholas for any reason anyway because it's just about the finest place on earth.

Our philosophy when it comes to our anniversary is if we have to celebrate it as though it were some kind of difficult to attain milestone, then there's probably something wrong with our relationship. It seems that we've always been a highly compatible couple. We've always enjoyed sharing each other's company, we love being together and in so many ways we are our respective yin and yang.

And it's been this way for about 45 years, when we met in our sophomore year in high school. I knew by the end of my junior year that I was going to spend my life with Micky. And that's what happened. I think most people desire the kind of enduring relationship with a special individual that Micky and I have had with each other and all I can really say to them is you have to be lucky. And we've been lucky.

I met the ideal person, married the ideal person, and it has worked out for us. I don't take credit for this, however. We have no magical formula for a successful marriage--you just have to find the right person at an early age when making right decisions are pretty much hit or miss. Having seen so many promising relationships hit the rocks makes me appreciate that it is truly rare for the stars to align as they have for us. So I've been lucky to have found the right woman and vice versa, just as I noted in an earlier post that we are lucky to have raised a couple of kids who turned out okay.

While there have been disappointments along the way in terms of our respective careers, financial trajectories, and my inability to find a wise publisher for my books, in the important things--we've  been lucky, which plays no small role on how one's life unfolds.

Sure, we'll go to to a plush hotel and a fancy restaurant for our 40th anniversary. But not because we need to celebrate an arbitrary milestone in our relationship, but because we have a perfect excuse to eat a great meal and sleep in fancy linens.

I think everyone deserves to get lucky in love--it's made all the difference in the life of this cynic!

Tom Brady--Go Sit in the Corner!

Tom Brady

The big news today is that superstar quarterback and All American golden boy Tom Brady was suspended for four games by the National Football League for allegedly ordering his staff to prepare under-inflated footballs during the AFC Conference Finals.

The penalty is also costing his team, the New England Patriots, their 2016 #1 draft pick and a fourth round pick the following year, plus $1 million. The hue and cry in the press and social media world has been crazy. People are screaming that Brady got off easy while others are complaining that he's being picked on because he's so perfect and everyone is jealous of his beauty and success.

Since it seems that everyone's unhappy with the NFL's action, my guess is the penalty was just right. Besides, once the Brady penalty is appealed, an impartial arbitrator will probably cut the suspension in half (my guess).

So everyone has an opinion, I figure I'll offer mine. First, Brady's team has a history of cheating--see Spygate 2007, when New England got caught taping videos of opponents' practices, and many thought the Patriots go off easy in the penalty phase.

New England is also known for craftily stretching various rules, especially when designating eligible receivers on passing downs. Plus there's New England owner Robert Craft's cozy relationship with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell. So many view Deflategate, as it has become known, as a test to see if the NFL is willing to bring the hammer down on the Patriots.

Apologists for Tom Brady insist that he's just being picked on because of who he is and the team he plays for. And it is true that once the balls in Deflategate were inflated to their proper psi in the second half of the AFC Championship, Brady managed to throw four touchdown passes as New Englande trounced Indianapolis. 

It seems to me that the suspension is sound, not only because it appears that Brady cheated and probably in some minor way sought an unfair advantage. But more important, his true offense, in my opinion, was his lack of cooperation with the NFL investigation, including his refusal to turn over emails and texts related to the incident.

I think Brady should have voluntarily submitted this information and the fact that he didn't indicates a superstar's arrogance and tacit admission of guilt. Sure, he had a legal right to limit his cooperation, but the NFL also has the right to suspend players if the evidence suggests serious rule violations. That's why, in this case, I think the NFL ruled appropriately.

Volatility and the Plague of Inconsistency

The concept of volatility has always fascinated me. Volatility from the angle that people constantly change their minds, alter their strategies, reverse their convictions. In the investment industry, volatility is actually a proxy for risk. The more an investment fluctuates, such as movements in stock prices, the riskier the investment is considered.

I am not a particularly volatile person. I do change my mind, but usually after careful consideration or from a desire to be less dull than usual and to inject a little drama into my life. I seldom make last minute changes when the waiter comes to take my dinner order, whereas certain people I know will ask a zillion questions, make a decision and then change it three times before the waiter is allowed to commit it to writing. I see no particular benefit in being so indecisive since these people make as many ordering mistakes as I do, but expend far more energy doing so.

Thus the fluctuations of the stock market interest me. The other day the Dow Jones went down a couple of hundred points--a big sell-off due to concerns caused when the Federal Reserve chief commented that she thought stock prices to "be a bit on the high side" and a temporary concern about growth prospects in the economy. All the worry warts rushed to sell off their stocks to buy relatively safer bonds. But they'll be back in the stock market in the next week or so when their fear subsides and their greed increases.

Financial markets often go haywire over short periods of time, but history shows that frequent traders who respond to every herk and jerk of the Dow almost always lose in the long run. Most of them know that market timing doesn't work but they do it anyway. Action based on volatility is almost always counterproductive unless you are the rare individual who functions best in a crisis. Most of us do not and thus slow, steady, decisive, and boring is usually the most profitable route. And to certain people who are not me and are excitable by nature, I say save your excitement for theme parks, casinos, and computer games. Investment markets reward boring behavior.

(But do note: There is some academic truth to the Wall Street adage of "Sell in May and go away." Markets usually do poorly in May through September and recover in the final quarter. Why? How should I know?)