Tuesday, March 18, 2014

CRIMEA DOESN'T MATTER


When it comes to Crimea’s annexation by Russia, the world reaction appears to be a collective shrug. Despite rumblings from some quarters of a nascent resumption of the Cold War, the best gauge of panic and discomfiture, the stock market, paused briefly before resuming its upward glide. 

Sure, world leaders from the euro zone and the U.S. tossed tantrums to varying degrees—but only because it was expected of them. No one likes to go through the trouble of redrawing maps and realigning allegiances. Of course the Republicans used the occasion, as they do all occasions, to dump on the current administration for perceived weakness and other shortcomings. 

But taken as a whole, the Crimean situation is a blip just short of a distraction. The facts on the ground seem pretty clear: the Crimeans have historically identified themselves as a limb of Mother Russia, with no particular affinity with the Ukrainian culture. Plus, Russia has deeper pockets to support the relatively impecunious state of Crimea—a place of meager industry and natural resources. 

No, the consensus is that Crimea is a purely local issue, not something to get your shorts twisted in a knot over. And don’t get me started on the saber-rattlers in Congress who intone the second coming of the Soviet Union—as goes Crimea, so goes Ukraine…and Belarus…and Poland…and GERMANY!!!! 

Try as he might, the Putin dream of a reconstituted USSR is futile at best—the ruble is in the dumper, the energy advantage is gradually dissipating as new sources of production are developed in Asia and North America. And Mother Russia, with its dysfunctional oligarchy and rampant corruption, really has nothing else to hang its hat on. 

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